Lew, yes, the U.S. will intervene, and it is likely that Great Britain, France, and, with lower likelihood, NATO will intervene. Their goal will be to install new governments that do not threaten their perceived interests, as they are attempting in Iraq and Afghanistan. From their perspective, this is mainly about control of oil and oil revenues and about preventing Iran from gaining regional hegemony and oil control. Somewhere along the way, I expect American naval and other forces to put in an appearance, and the story will be that they are there to ensure stability, protect interests, and ensure oil supplies.

The risk of war with Iran is rising, although presently not visible. Bahrain is shaping up something like Serbia before WWI. Iran has claimed Bahrain for a very long time. Most of its population is poorer and Shiite, and ruled by wealthier Sunnis. Iran’s sending of ships through Suez is a bid to get the new Egyptian regime, temporary or not, to make a concession to Iran. Britain’s Prime Minister Cameron already has visited Egypt, a form of intervention, and didn’t talk or acknowledge the Muslim Brotherhood. For now, the intervention will be carrots, aid, food aid, loans, and the leverage of recognition and support. It will be all about getting pro-western governments installed and getting business back to usual, with a couple of bones thrown to the protesting masses. Israel is a wild card and can upset the applecart unless handled very firmly. The uprisings are so pervasive and so spirited and so strong and have already succeeded so far that they can be expected to continue eliminating the old governments and opening up new political situations in many lands. This all becomes an enormously complicated challenge for Obama and the U.S. government to manage and handle, much like the Hungarian uprising was for the Soviets.